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Below is a list of our Market Update PDF newsletters. Click on the text link to download the pdf.
There has been a lot of talk about the effect of tariffs on both the U.S. as well as on countries that trade with the U.S. In this issue, we look at trade deficits, the effectiveness of tariffs, and what the stock market might do as a result. We also review how our portfolios are doing so far this year.
Has the Bull Market Really Been All That, and a Bag of Chips?, by David Gilreath, principal at Sheaff Brock
Some argue that at Dow 25,000 the stock market has little room to go higher, and that the 8 year run has been so strong, unlike other periods in history. But, has it really been uncommonly strong?
We decided to go back 50 years and see if the current market has really done all that great when compared to 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 20-year periods of the past 50 years.
Here are the results:
- Trailing 3 years, it is above average
- Trailing 5 years, it is pretty strong - well above average
- Trailing 10 years, it is way below average
- Trailing 20 years have been terrible, below 50% of average
"To put a trillion dollars in context, if you spent a million dollars every day since Jesus was born, you still wouldn't have spent a trillion." This month, we re-visit just how large a sum 'one trillion dollars' is, and consider just how much debt the market can take. Happy Holidays from all of us at Sheaff Brock, and we'll see you in the new year!
Remember when we said the Dow was going to 20,000 and no one believed us? Sitting around 26,000 today, we decided to look back over the history of the S&P 500 and see how outlandish our claim really was, and if a 50,000 or 80,000 Dow in a decade may be something to look forward to! Plus, our usual Portfolio Updates (will 2018 be a repeat of 2017's low-volatility, straight-up market?) and a reminder to sign up for our monthly Knowledge Builder webinars.
To be hedged, or not to be hedged; that is the question! As Hamlet so eloquently put it (okay, so maybe that's not word-for-word), can hedging help if you're expecting a 5% drop in the market? How about a 20% drop? This month, we look at a few different market scenarios, and some alternatives like raising cash or investing in a tactical strategy.