2024 Market Predictions Are In; Consensus Is Not
Nobody has a crystal ball; Wall Street certainly doesn’t. At the end of last year, most economists were predicting a recession in 2023. The average prediction for the S&P 500 for 2023 was 4,029; a 5% increase from year-end. Flash forward to almost year-end – we certainly aren’t in a recession and it’s hard to see one starting over the next couple of months. The S&P 500 finished 2023 at 4,770, or 15.5% higher than the consensus. If you believed the pundits and sat on the sidelines, you may have missed some nice returns. Looking toward 2024, economists have more mixed feelings, with a soft landing being the most common prediction. Some (like Ed Yardeni) are more bullish while others (like JP Morgan) are bearish. Sheaff Brock is more in the Yardeni camp but, ultimately, we don’t know.
What we are confident about is the long-term health of the US economy and the stock market continuing to increase in value. This year has again demonstrated the resiliency of the US consumer and economy. Also, there are incredibly brilliant people moving society forward, through advancements such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and weight-loss drugs (Ozempic and Mounjaro). These were major catalysts for stock market returns in 2023. A potential way to take advantage of these forces is to invest in the stock market for a long time. There are always risks and unknowns; investing over time despite those fears could generate attractive returns.
Sheaff Brock’s use of quantitative scores and downside risk helps us select worthy stocks for our portfolios. These tools have been a tremendous help in navigating the ever-changing investing conditions and the macroeconomic environment. We look forward to serving as your advisor in 2024.
Blanks reflect unknown or no formal predictions.
Source: Market Watch and Yahoo! Finance
DISCLOSURE
Sheaff Brock Investment Advisors, LLC (“SBIA”) is an SEC-registered investment advisor founded in 2001. Clients or prospective clients are directed to SBIA’s Form ADV Part 2A prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. The views and opinions in the preceding commentary are subject to change without notice and are as of the date of the report. There is no guarantee that any market forecast set forth in the commentary will be realized. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time, should not be relied upon as investment advice, and is not intended to predict or depict performance of any investment. Any specific recommendations or comparisons that are made as to particular securities or strategies are for illustrative purposes only and are not meant as investment advice for any viewer. The companies mentioned in the publications may be held by Sheaff Brock Investment Advisors, Innovative Portfolios, Innovative Portfolios’ ETFs or any other affiliates or related persons. Therefore, there is a conflict of interest that the advisors may have a vested interest in the Companies and the statements made about them. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.