Bank of America’s Joseph P. Quinlan, Managing Director and Head of CIO Market Strategy wrote an excellent article about the US Economic Exceptionalism. Below is a condensed version featuring key excerpts and bullet-point summaries. The decline of American Exceptionalism has been a major theme of the markets this year. Thanks...
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was launched in 1990 to measure the implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index, based on the pricing of near-term puts and calls expiring in 30 days. This approach created a market-based gauge of trader sentiment and expectations. Commonly referred to as the “fear index,”...
The policy uncertainty stemming from the Trump Administration has triggered a wave of emotions and concerns across both social and economic sectors. According to survey data, uncertainty levels are now even higher than during the COVID-19 pandemic—a surprising reality. While evolving tariff policies and their potential ramifications have contributed to...
A significant number of pundits and analysts are currently calling the stock market overvalued, citing earnings multiples that are elevated compared to historical levels. According to the Bloomberg Estimates Price/Earnings Ratio (Best P/E Ratio) for the S&P 500 Index, the forward P/E stood at 24.9x as of year-end. This figure...
What a Year 2024 has been! Despite fears and trepidations, the stock market achieved an impressive 57 record highs as of December 20, 2024. Unsurprisingly, Wall Street analysts had a notably inaccurate outlook for the stock market this year. Last year, 14 different firms projected the S&P 500 would range...
The election is over, and people’s attention can shift back to daily life and the upcoming holidays. But how are Americans feeling across different segments of society? The University of Michigan has been conducting a Consumer Sentiment Survey monthly since 1978. This survey captures views on current and future economic...
In 2020, Morgan Housel published the New York Times best-selling book titled The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness. He has also published Same as Ever and regularly writes a blog post. On October 14, 2024, he released a post called “A Message From the Past...
The Federal Reserve has finally cut interest rates, a move that the market had eagerly anticipated for some time. Over the past year, investors consistently speculated that rate cuts would happen sooner and be larger than what ultimately transpired. The Fed reduced the Federal Funds Rate, or the overnight lending...
Economic conditions and data points continue to evolve, sending mixed signals. While growth appears to be slowing, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model is projecting Q3 GDP growth at a healthy 2.0% as of August 26, 2024. Unemployment has risen to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021....
The real estate sector is starting to turn the corner after being unloved for the last few years. The Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Index (the benchmark for our Real Estate Income & Growth portfolio) peaked at the end of 2021. Once interest rates started increasing in early 2022, the...
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